A few random observations.


Politico says there is no Shy Trump Voter. Morning Consult says that there is, but that it’s not sufficient to close the gap with Hillary Clinton.

One of the thoughts that has been crossing my mind is the phantom Clinton voter. Who would be afraid of saying that they plan to vote for Clinton? Well, some Republicans might. But maybe the bigger goal mine is Clinton wives with Trump husbands:

I don’t know how widespread this is, but it’s an interesting phenomenon all the same and could cut in to whatever Shy Trump Voter margin exists out there. My final prediction is that Clinton will win by six, outperforming the polls by a bit. It may prove to be going out on a limb. However, I think the reasons for the disparity are probably not shy voters but a combination of organization and harder-to-reach Democratic voters. Basically, the same factor that lead polls to underestimate Obama in 2012.

One thing we’re likely to learn this election is whether the swing voter is, in fact, a thing of the past. I believe its death has been exaggerated, and that at least a part of the reason for greater alignment is candidates being in-sync with their party. If there is ever an election which might shake some people loose, it’s this one. The non-GOP public has been very patient with the GOP in not associated it with its standard-bearer. It’s unclear whether that will carry over to the election. And whether they might view the GOP as a hedge against also-unpopular Hillary Clinton.

I follow a lot of conservatives on Twitter who didn’t like Trump in the primary. Some intentionally, some just kind of ended up in the same place. Different people have responded to everything differently. Some came around to Trump. Others are talking about pox and a pair of houses. Others still are saying that they would prefer Hillary but will punt by voting third party. Some are now With Her.

It seems not coincidental that ethnic and racial minorities are going the last route. Most whites (including Jewish) are going in one of the first. It’s actually a stronger predictor than “How conservative are they?” is. While saying things like “Voting for third party is white male privilege” leads to things like white men lecturing women and minorities about privilege, it seems noteworthy all the same.

There was a case to be made for Hillary Clinton’s courting of the frustrated Republicans early on. There was at least the perception of a chance of a landslide. As time has progressed, however, it’s becoming increasingly clear that it wasn’t actually helping her as much as downticket Republicans. Which, as one can imagine, frustrates downticket Democrats. Especially given their historical hyperfocus on the presidency that has left congress shut out of what could have been a majority.

Clinton has gone more sharply against Republican officeholders, but never did go full-throttle. I have a theory as to why.

For all of the talk of how divided the GOP is, there is a bit of a battle brewing on the Democratic side. Democrats seem oddly sanguine about Sanders getting way further in the primary than he should have because he lost in the end, but that should be an alarm for some of the more moderate members. Combine that with Fight for Fifteen and the ascent of Elizabeth Warren, and there could be some trouble ahead once Trump is no longer in the picture.

Or maybe not. It’s hard to say. But one of the things we’ve learned through various illicit releases about Hillary Clinton is that despite being reckless in some regards, is very cautious in others. They are keenly aware of their vulnerabilities. Overly so, at times. It’s not out of the question that she might be worried about the above. And another sense I’ve gotten from what I’ve learned is that she may be, in her heard of hearts, a moderate that is genuinely uncomfortable with the leftier segment of her party. More than once, I’ve gotten the impression her folks might hate hippies more than a lot of Republicans do.

If this is the case, then I actually find myself wondering if she’s not courting our votes precisely in preparation for the coming conflict. I don’t know what my partisan future holds, though if I do jump it will likely be to keep the Hillary Faction in charge up against the Warren Faction. Not out of any particular love for her, of course, but if she could once again find herself in my eye as the thing that stands in between the future and a wrong turn. Meanwhile, doubling down to enthuse the youth vote and disaffected left is something that she’s seen can backfire on a political party. People like me would only strengthen her faction.

Whatever the case, while I don’t know how I’m going to vote tomorrow I have found myself more comfortable with the prospect of her leadership. Maybe corrupt, but within normal parameters. And on the political spectrum, even moreso perhaps.

Donald Trump has taken the lead in the Yardsign poll. He started off ahead 5-3, then at some point it became 10-9 for Clinton. It’s been all Trump since. Even the guy with the flag put it back out.

Category: Newsroom

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5 Responses to Hillary Swings For The Swings

  1. gregiank says:

    I’m not sure if i’m quite reading your correctly near the end. Clinton has always been a moderate on most issues. She is furthest to the liberal end on social issues but thats about. She is hawkish on foreign affairs and centrist on business/econ issues. And she has always been very cautious. That is part of her problem with the press, she is cautious out of fear of being burned to the point of paranoia. Bernie pushed her a bit left, but she had to be pushed, it wasn’t because she isn’t naturally centrist. I think her crew has never liked the leftie wing of the D’s.

    • trumwill says:

      Hillary had always been regarded as “the liberal Clinton” at least against her husband. She also has the reputation for being something of a shifter (note: I do not at all consider this to be a bad thing). So there was kind of the question of where she stands, if anywhere, on a personal level. Which matters to folks like me because the dynamics of the Democratic Party are likely to pull her to the left. It’s nice to consider that perhaps her personal convictions will at least be in tension with that.

  2. greginak says:

    I don’t consider shifting positions necessarily a bad thing either.She will be pulled in opposing directions by the D’s. I’m not sure how much more liberal she was considered. Certaily Bernie went after her from the left and her speeches to wall street are somehow an issue. But the fog of crazified distortion around still makes her hazy to me. I can predict her in general ways and know where she stands but there are some wild takes out there.

  3. Michael Drew says:

    The intuition I had on Twitter the other day was that, while, yes, surely many wives won’t tell their husband they’re voting for Clinton, my sense is that that is something that is not new – wives voting Democratic and not telling their husbands. I almost have to think that pollsters have to have a factor in their functions to account for that (maybe I’m wrong). To be sure, it may be bigger this year. But OTOH, with Trump being as odious as he is, I wonder whether it might not be easier for some wives to be open about not voting Republican.

    My sense, though, is that there will be men who will vote for Trump without telling their wives, and that this may be fairly new. Were polls accounting for men not telling their wives they were voting for Republicans before? The whole notion of wives not telling husbands, which, again, is I think not new, depends on the power dynamic going the other way. But, in addition to power dynamics just changing on their own, Trump changes them further, as there is every reason for wives to be offended and indignant at their husbands for voting Trump – whereas that was not the case with previous GOP nominees.

    It sounds like the numbers don’t bear this out (though I haven;t seen a way of looking for it that seems like it would really get at it to me), but I’m not suggesting it as anything more than speculation. And I don’t think it;s worth more than a point or two myself. But that was where I was coming from in thinking the Shy vote may go the other way.

    • trumwill says:

      FTR, this post was in the works before out back-and-forth. I wrote it one item at a time (though you did inspire me to find the link).

      I would guess that *usually* the Shy Spouse thing works itself out relatively evenly. There are reasons this time around could be different. But you’re right that it could be different the other way.

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