As I was graduating from college, one thing became apparent: Desktops were going the way of the dinosaur. Laptops were going to replace them. Why shouldn’t they? I mean, you can actually take a laptop places. It can do everything a desktop can do, but in a portable way, right?

Well, laptops have displaced desktops as the most common form of personal computing (at least, I believe so). Yet… desktops are still around. In large numbers. And they aren’t going away. It’s likely that they never will. Why not? Because they serve a valuable purpose as work machines. The work station I have up stairs? Laptops can’t do that. Multi-monitors, large monitors, a more workish environment that requires no set-up. Even if a laptop is more flexible, there are a number of things that are easier to do on a desktop than a laptop. And given how cheap both are, it’s easy to have both. And so while the laptop has thrived, the desktop has remained and appears as though it will remain indefinitely. Why wouldn’t they?

With this in mind, my head boggles any time anyone talks about the post-PC world. A few years ago it was smartphones that were going to replace PCs. Now, tablets. Okay, tablets with keyboards, maybe. So sort of laptops. There’ll be a merger. Something will surely happen to kill off the PC, right?

No. Not at all.

Just as was the case with the smartphone, the notion that we will settle on any single device is very short-sighted. Why should we? Different tasks beg for different tools. Sometimes you need to sit and work. Sometimes you want to sprawl on the sofa and write a blog post. Sometimes you need extra monitors, sometimes you want to be comfortable. Sometimes you want something you can take with you, sometimes you want something that fits in your pocket, and sometimes those things don’t matter and you want performance (and the desktop will always rule over laptops, tablets, and smartphones over performance). This notion that we will end up settling on a single device implies a degree of scarcity that does not actually exist. Now, more than ever, we can afford a desktop and a laptop and a smartphone and a tablet. We can cut out this one or that one, and few will have all four, but there’s not much reason to believe we will all cut out the same ones.

Ironically, the thing that is going to make this easier is actually the thing that leads some to say that the future is going to not be a PC one: cloud computing. I am actually skeptical of the extent to which we will ever move completely to cloud computing, but it does make switching between devices easier. Which not only means that we can do more on our tertiary devices, but also means that we can use these devices in complement with one another.

I was first told about “cloud computing” when I was in college. It wasn’t called that yet, but went by the less marketable name of “Dumb Terminal.” Which was the belief that in the future, computers wouldn’t actually be anything but terminals into larger and more powerful machines. It took fifteen years, and it’s still not happening quite like it was supposed. Why should it happen? Our individual computers now are just as powerful as the mainframe they would have been connected to 15 years ago. Given the constant state of advancement, there’s no reason to outsource what our computer does. At least, not completely. Enough, though, to make owning lots of devices easier. As Americans, we like to own stuff.


Category: Server Room

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5 Responses to The Everlasting PC

  1. David Alexander says:

    Multi-monitors, large monitors, a more workish environment that requires no set-up.

    I’m amazed that as a ThinkPad fan, you haven’t noted that you can set up dual monitors with the ThinkPad docks. With the current Mini Dock Plus Series 3, you get one VGA, two DVI, and two DisplayPort connections. Given that most people tend to only connect two monitors to a desktop, it’s still not a bad set up. Of course, the problem is that the most of the laptop market is filled with users who don’t buy ThinkPads and thus don’t have docks. I like the dock, and it’s arguably the best set up for anybody that wants to have the portability of a laptop with the convenience of a desktop. I can take my laptop with me on the road or to my kitchen, and if I want to edit photos, I can restore it to the dock to take advantage of the monitor without having to re-attach cables.

  2. trumwill says:

    I’ve never really been into docks. It may sound trivial, but even the plugging in of a monitor, mouse, network cable, and so on is an inconvenience. Plus, going from two monitors to one (which is what happens when you have two monitors going and then unplug one) messes up my work environment.

    I tend to take the same view of those who would plug-unplug a tablet into accessories, even if a good dock were created. Though in that case, I think computing power is also a factor.

  3. Abel Keogh says:

    Cloud computing has evolved into more of a service than a replacement for desktops and laptops. They let you access books/software without taking up space on the hard drive.

  4. trumwill says:

    Yeah, though I think there are limits to the extent to which we will rely on the cloud for software. Hard drive space being so cheap, local processing power so plentiful.

  5. David Alexander says:

    It may sound trivial, but even the plugging in of a monitor, mouse, network cable, and so on is an inconvenience.

    Dude, you just plug in everything once, and just detach from the base as needed with the touch of a button!

    Plus, going from two monitors to one (which is what happens when you have two monitors going and then unplug one) messes up my work environment.

    Yes, but with a dock, you have the flexibility if you need it. In other words, I don’t need a desktop AND a laptop when I have the dock. I can use one device whether I’m sitting at my desk at home, at a table at Starbucks, or on Amtrak. While I can’t use dual monitors when I’m away from the base, your desktop isn’t much useful away from its desk while the laptop remains usable for other tasks. I’m not knocking desktops, but a good dock and a good laptop have the capability to reduce the need for a full blown desktop for some people, including myself.

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