Tyler Cowen looks at possible reasons Trump won, if he wins. I remain confident that Trump is not going to win, but whether he does or not that he remains where he is means that some people are going to have to figure things out. Most particularly Republicans. Individual Republicans seeking to capitalize on his success, if not the party looking to prevent it. Maybe some of both. But how much of it is his grab-bag of policy? How much of it is his celebrity? How much of it is his abrasive posture? A lot hinges on the answers, which nobody presently knows.

Outside a Trump victory, one of the worst things that can happen in my view is a 3-5% victory for Hillary Clinton. Depending on what the exits say, close enough that the argument for a non-offensive candidate becomes harder to make, and far enough of a margin for the Democrats to believe that Demographics Uber Alles and they never need worry about losing again so there is no cause for alarm.

{Via Jaybird}


Category: Espresso

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9 Responses to Ergo Propter Hoc

  1. greginak says:

    I don’t’ really disagree. However winning by 5% is a pretty big margin given current polarization so that seems like a really high bar. Add in the 2 third parties and I’ll bet whoever wins ( mostly likely Hillary) gets less than 50%. That leads to the inevitable “no mandate ” chant and Obstruction 2.0 or 3.0 by the R’s in congress. That doesn’t’ sound like the start of R’s figuring out what went wrong with Trump.

    For the D’s while in the medium term demographics favor them that doesn’t mean they should be resting easy and it is easily within their grasp to be clueless. They have an impressive history of that.

    • trumwill says:

      If she wins outpaces Obama ’12 in terms of the popular vote and electoral college, I’ll take it.

      But my I’ve got a 6 point spread and she ought to be able to clear that.

      (This has nothing to do with mandate. She gets to govern even if she loses the popular vote as long as she wins. I’m just talking about what it portends for 2020 and beyond.)

  2. Jaybird says:

    Listening to NPR on the way to work, Hillary Clinton’s speech was something to the effect of “the need to rework policy” and Trump yelled something to the effect of “WE NEED TO RESTORE ORDER”.

    I can’t help but think that, if Trump wins, impromptu Trump rallies like the one in Charlotte will have a hand in it.

  3. Jaybird says:

    Dan Drezner has a somewhat related article explaining why he isn’t worried about a Trump election.

    The part of the article that makes me feel the best about it is where he points out that “prediction markets have not had nearly as strong a reaction.”

    I trust prediction markets more than I trust polls.

    Maybe Trump won’t win.

  4. fillyjonk says:

    I’ll just observe that if I worked in a career where I could request and take vacation when I wanted it, I’d be requesting my two weeks starting the day of the election.

    And then either leave town for a remote camping area, or stock up on canned goods, lock my doors, and pull down the blinds and avoid all social media. I’ve mentioned this to people both on the right and the left of me politically and they don’t seem at all shocked by it.

    It’s gonna be ugly after the election. That’s as far as I will go toward predicting.

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